A Dynamic Analysis of Recent Changes in the Rate of Part - Time Employment

The part-time employment rate has declined since the early 1980s, especially among females. This paper examines the decline over the 1980-1990 period, with a focus on the gender differential, using gross change data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly transition rates between full-time employment, part-time employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation are estimated according to sex. Trend and cyclical analysis of the transition rates is conducted to identify the sources of part-time employment-rate trends and to explore gender differentials in them. The results suggest that the decline in the rate of parttime employment among females is not so much because unemployed females are more likely to move into full-time employment, but rather because females have become more likely to move from parttime to full-time employment and, most important, because they have become less likely to leave full-time employment once they get there. www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/index.cfm